Jets vs Browns

To open Week 3 of the 2018 NFL season, the Cleveland Browns host the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff from FirstEnergy Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Tyrod Taylor rallied the Browns back from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit against the Steelers to an Opening Day tie and then nearly willed his squad to an upset in New Orleans last Sunday. Sam Darnold, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, had a memorable debut against the Lions in which he led Gang Green to a convincing 48-17 victory. But on Sunday against Miami, he was constantly pressured and struggled in the loss. Cleveland opened as a 3-5-point home favorite and is now laying 3 in the latest Browns vs. Jets odds. The Over-Under, or a total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 40 after dipping briefly to 39. Before you make any Browns vs. Jets picks, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say. In a straight-up format, the proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and '17, performing better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, the computer went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. It also nailed its three top-rated picks in Week 2, including backing the Chiefs against the spread (+4.5) and on the money line (+170) for their big upset of the Steelers. It's now 5-2 on top-rated picks this season, extending its run to 53-36. Now, the model has simulated Jets vs. Browns 10,000 times to produce strong ATS and over-under picks. We can tell you it's leaning toward the under, saying it hits in 62 percent of simulations, but its bold point-spread pick that hits over half the time can be found only at SportsLine. The model has factored in Darnold's inexperience. While he has thrown for more than 500 yards over his first two games, he has also tossed three interceptions, including a pick-six in his first NFL pass. To mitigate the Browns' stout defensive line, running back Isaiah Crowell will need to electrify the ground attack. He's rushed for 137 yards over his first two games and has found pay dirt twice. While backup Bilal Powell can still grind out first downs on the ground, he's better utilized as Darnold's security blanket under pressure. Against Miami, he caught five balls for 74 yards. Just because the Jets struggled in Week 2 doesn't mean they can't keep it within the spread on "Thursday Night Football." The model also knows the Browns failed to close out a win against the Saints after missing two field goals and two extra points. Taylor will also need to escape an imposing Jets front seven hellbent on disrupting the offense. The Jets are No. 5 in the NFL in total yards allowed at 596 per game and No. 6 in points allowed at 18.5. They're also top-10 in pass defense at 211.0 yards per game. Taylor has the elusiveness to dodge defenders, but he'll need to ride a strong rushing attack to victory. Carlos Hyde, who spent the previous four seasons in San Francisco, has struggled to get on track this year. He's getting plenty of touches (38) but is netting a scant 2.8 yards per carry despite two scores. He's also not much of a pass-catching threat.